TABLE III
M
ONTHLY WIND SPEED MEAN AND
ME
VALUES
(
M
/
S
)
E
ACH
P
ERCENTAGE IS
M
E WITH
R
ESPECT TO MEAN
Mean
P1
ARIMA
dARIMA
SARIMA
ME %
ME %
ME %
ME %
Jan.
8.2
2.0 24
2.0
24
2.2
27
1.9
23
Feb.
6.0
2.2
37
1.9
32
2.1
35
1.9
32
Mar.
6.2
3.0
48
2.1
34
2.0
32
2.0
32
Apr.
6.0
2.4
40
2.0
33
1.9
32
1.9
32
May
5.8
1.9
33
1.9
33
1.9
33
1.8
31
Jun.
6.9
2.2
32
1.7
25
1.7
25
1.7
25
Jul.
8.2
2.0
24
2.2
27
2.8
34
2.0
24
Aug.
8.5
2.2
26
2.5
29
2.5
29
2.3
27
Sep.
5.0
2.6
52
1.9
38
2.0
40
1.9
38
Oct.
8.0
2.1
26
2.1
26
2.3
29
2.1
26
Nov.
9.8
2.6
27
2.6
27
2.8
29
2.3
23
Dec.
7.4
2.0
27
1.8
24
2.2
30
1.8
24
Fig. 6. ME over forecast hours, based on all forecast episodes.
Fig. 7. ME values by different models over entire evaluation period at
different wind speed intervals. Each parenthesized percentage represents
the ratio of no. of hours in a particular interval to all hours.
A
CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The wind dataset was kindly provided by Electricity
Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). We thank the
JGSEE Computational Laboratory (Bang Khun Thien
Campus) for general assistance. The study is technically
supported by the National Science and Technology
Development Agency (NSTDA) and the Electricity
Generating Authority of Thailand (under joint grant No.
P-12-00858), the Thailand Research Fund (under grant
RDG5050016), and the Asahi Glass Foundation.
R
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