เอกสารการประชุมวิชาการและเสนอผลงานวิจัย มหาวิทยาลัยทักษิณ ครั้งที่ 19 2552 - page 139

„µ¦ž¦³»¤ª·µ„µ¦Â¨³Áœ°Ÿ¨Šµœª·‹´¥ ¤®µª·š¥µ¨´¥š´„¬·– ‡¦´ÊŠš¸É 19 ž¦³‹Îµže 2552
Abstract
The objective of this research is to use logistic regression analysis to classify listed companies in the
Stock Exchange of Thailand for their financial stability. The data consisted of financial ratios based on the
financial statements of the years 2006-2008 of totally 238 companies, of which 213 are financially stable and 25
are financially unstable. Listed Companies that are profitable consecutively for 3 years are considered as
financially stable and listed companies that are loss consecutively for 3 years are regarded as financially unstable.
In developing a model to predict a company’s financial stability, the following financial ratios are used as
explanatory variables: 1) net working capital to total assets 2) current ratio 3) acid test ratio 4) current liabilities to
total debt and equity 5) long term debt to total debt and equity. Mahalanobis distance is used to detect outlying
observations. It is found that 8, 9 and 6 observations of the year 2006, 2007 and 2008 , respectively, appearing
to be outliers and thus were removed from the analysis. The research results are as follow:
1. The logistic regression model based on the data of the year 2006 can classify the companies’
financial stability of the year 2006, 2007 and 2008 correctly 90.87, 91.34 and 91.74 percent respectively.
2. The logistic regression model based on the data of the year 2007 can classify the companies’ financial
stability of the year 2007 and 2008 correctly 92.14 and 90.83 percent respectively.
3. The logistic regression model based on the data of the year 2008 can classify the company financial
stability of the year 2008 correctly 90.5 percent.
Keywords: Financial Stability, The Stock Exchange of Thailand, Classification, Logistic Regression
‡Î µœÎµ
˜¨µ—®¨´„š¦´¡¥r®nŠž¦³Áš«Åš¥ (The Stock Exchange of Thailand) Áž}œ˜¨µ—¦°Šš¸É‹´—˜´ÊŠ ¹Êœ°¥nµŠÁž}œ
šµŠ„µ¦ šÎµ®œoµš¸ÉĜ„µ¦„Î µ„´—¼Â¨„µ¦ŽºÊ ° µ¥®¨´„š¦´¡¥r‹—š³Á¸ ¥œ „µ¦ŽºÊ° µ¥ °Š¦· ¬´š¤µ·„ ¨³„µ¦Ážd—ÁŸ¥
o°¤¼¨š¸ÉÁž}œµ¦³Îµ‡´Á„¸É¥ª„´„µ¦—εÁœ·œŠµœ °Š¦·¬´š‹—š³Á¸¥œ ¨³šÎµ®œoµš¸É‡ª‡» ¤—¼Â¨Ä®o„µ¦ŽºÊ° µ¥
®¨´„š¦´¡¥r—εÁœ·œÅž°¥nµŠ¤¸ ¦³Á¸¥ ‡¨n°Š˜´ª Þ¦nŠÄ ¨³¥»˜·›¦¦¤ Á¡ºÉ°¦o µŠ‡ªµ¤¤´ÉœÄ‹Â„n Ÿ¼o¨Šš»œÂ¨³n ŠÁ¦·¤Ä®o
Á„·—„µ¦¦³—¤ÁŠ·œ°°¤‹µ„ž¦³µœÅž¨Šš»œÄœ„·‹„µ¦˜nµŠ Ç š¸ÉÁž}œž¦³Ã¥œr ˜n°„µ¦¡´•œµÁ«¦¬“„· ‹Ã—¥¦ª¤ Ÿ¼o
¨Šš»œÄœ˜¨µ—®¨´„š¦´¡¥r‹ÎµÁž}œ˜o°Š¤¸‡ªµ¤Á oµÄ‹ o°¤¼¨¡ºÊœ“µœš¸É ε‡´Äœ„µ¦¨Šš» œ Á¡ºÉ°š¸É‹³šÎµÄ®o µ¤µ¦™
˜´—·œÄ‹ŽºÊ° µ¥®¨´„š¦´¡¥rŗo °¥nµŠ¦°‡°Â¨³¤¸Á®˜» ¤¸Ÿ¨ °¥n µŠÅ¦„Șµ¤ o °¤¼¨‡ªµ¤¤´Éœ‡ŠšµŠ„µ¦ÁŠ·œ (Financial
Stability) „ÈÁž}œž{‹‹´¥®œ¹ÉŠš¸É ε‡´Äœ„µ¦¡·‹µ¦–µ„µ¦¨Šš»œÂ¨³Áž}œ—´œ¸ ³šo°œ‡ªµ¤œnµÁºÉ°™º° °Š¦·¬´š
‡ªµ¤¤´Éœ‡ŠšµŠ„µ¦ÁŠ· œ °Š¦·¬´š®¨´„š¦´¡¥rš¸É‹—š³Á¸ ¥œÄœ˜¨µ—®¨´„š¦´¡¥r Áž}œž{‹‹´¥Îµ‡´˜n°‡ªµ¤
¤´Éœ‡Š °Š˜¨µ—®¨´„š¦´¡¥r ¨³nŠŸ¨˜n°‡ªµ¤¤´Éœ‡Š °Š¦³„µ¦ÁŠ·œ °Šž¦³Áš«Äœ£µ¡¦ª¤ —o ª¥Á®˜»œ¸Ê Ÿ¼oª·‹´¥‹¹Š¤¸
‡ªµ¤œÄ‹Äœ„µ¦ª·Á‡¦µ³®r ‡ªµ¤¤´Éœ‡ŠšµŠ„µ¦ÁŠ·œ °Š¦·¬´šš¸É‹—š³Á¸¥œÄœ˜¨µ—®¨´„š¦´¡¥r®nŠž¦³Áš«Åš¥ ×¥
„ε®œ—Á„–”r¦·¬´šš¸É¤¸‡ªµ¤¤´Éœ‡ŠšµŠ„µ¦ÁŠ·œ ‡º° ¦·¬´šš¸É‹—š³Á¸¥œÄœ˜¨µ—®¨´„š¦´¡¥r² ¨oª¤¸Ÿ¨„εŦ
˜n°ÁœºÉ°Š„´œ 3 žeœ´ ™¹Šžež{ ‹‹»´œ nªœ¦·¬´šš¸ÉŤn¤¸‡ªµ¤¤´Éœ‡ŠšµŠ„µ¦ÁŠ·œ ‡º° ¦·¬´šš¸É‹—š³Á¸¥œÄœ˜¨µ—
®¨´„š¦´¡¥r² ¨oª¤¸Ÿ¨„µ¦ µ—š»œ˜n°ÁœºÉ°Š„´œ 3 žeœ´™¹Šžež{ ‹‹»´œ œªšµŠ®œ¹ÉŠš¸Éœ· ¥¤Äœ„µ¦ª·Á‡¦µ³®r™¹Š‡ªµ¤¤´Éœ‡Š