เอกสารการประชุมวิชาการและเสนอผลงานวิจัย มหาวิทยาลัยทักษิณ ครั้งที่ 19 2552 - page 644

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2
Abstract
The objectives of this study were to study the production and marketing of maize in Thailand and study
the impacts of free trade of maize under WTO agreements and Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic
Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS). The model was built by using the time series data during the years between
1989-2007, the simultaneous equation system of 5 equations was set consisting of maize planted area, maize
yield, demand for domestic processed maize meal, demand for import maize meal and price equations. The
coefficients were estimated by Two Stage Least Squares. These elasticities were used to evaluate the impacts of
free trade of maize under WTO agreements and Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation
Strategy (ACMECS).
The results of this research indicate a declining trend in maize planted areas but rising in output per rai
with a slight change in both foreign and domestic price levels. The study also found statistically significant factors
affecting the fluctuation maize planted areas of Thai maize namely planted areas in the previous year, wholesale
prices of maize in the previous year and last year second rice price. Factor affecting yield of maize are the amount
of rainfall in the current year and wholesale prices of maize in the previous year. In addition wholesale price of
maize, quantities of chicken production, GDP per capita in the current year and import price of maize were also
found to have statistically significant effect on the demand of Thai maize. Moreover, by analyzing the results of
this, using 1989-1994 as base years it was found that maize planted areas and yield of maize decreased by 0.341
and 0.265 percent respectively whereas the amounts of import and consumption increased by 7.88 and 0.138
percent respectively as a result of a 20 percent reduction in a tariff rate after joining the WTO and Maize planted
areas and output per rai decreased by 0.474 and 0.52 percent respectively whereas the amounts of import and
consumption increased by 9.76 and 0.38 percent respectively as a result of a 0 percent reduction in a tariff rate
after joining the ACMECS.
Keyword: Trade liberalization, Two stage least square method
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