full2010.pdf - page 1845

1807
×¥š¸É Bt ‡º°Ÿ¨˜°ÂšœÄœžeš¸É t Ct ‡º°˜oœš»œÄœžeš¸É t r ‡º°°´ ˜¦µnªœ¨—š¸ÉÁ®¤µ³¤ n ‡º°‹Î µœªœžeš´ÊŠ·Êœ °Š
ǦŠ„µ¦
2. ¤¼¨‡nµž{‹‹»´œ» š›· (Net Present Value ®¦º ° NPV) ‡º° ¤¼¨‡nµž{ ‹‹»´ œ °Š„¦³Â˜°Âšœ»š›·®¦º°
„¦³ÂÁŠ·œ— °ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦ Ž¹ÉŠ‡Îµœª–Å—o—oª¥„µ¦šÎµn ªœ¨—„¦³ÂŸ¨˜°Âšœ»š›·˜¨°—´Éª°µ¥»°ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦Ä®o
Áž}œ¤¼¨‡n µž{‹‹»´œ ®¦º°°µ‹‡Îµœª–®µ‹µ„‡ªµ¤Â˜„˜nµŠ¦³®ªnµŠ¤¼¨‡nµž{‹‹»´ œ °Š„¦³ÂŸ¨˜°Âšœ¦ª¤ ¨³
¤¼¨‡nµž{ ‹‹»´œ °Š„¦³Â˜oœš»œ¦ª¤µ¤µ¦™‡Îµœª–Å—o—´Šœ¸Ê
¤¼¨‡nµž{ ‹‹»´œ»š›· = 1 (1 )
n
t t
t
t
B C
r ¦ (2)
×¥š¸É Bt‡º°Ÿ¨˜°ÂšœÄœžeš¸É t Ct ‡º°˜oœš»œÄœžeš¸É t r ‡º°°´˜¦µn ªœ¨—š¸ÉÁ®¤µ³¤ n ‡º° ‹Îµœªœže š´ÊŠ·Êœ °Š
ǦŠ„µ¦
3. °´˜¦µŸ¨˜°Âšœ °ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦ (Internal Rate of Return ®¦º° IRR) Áž}œ®¨´„Á„–”r„µ¦ž¦³Á¤·œ
‡ªµ¤‡»o¤‡nµ °ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦š¸Éŗo ¦´‡ªµ¤œ·¥¤š¸É »— š´ÊŠœ¸ÊÁœºÉ°Š‹µ„Âœª‡·— °Š IRR ¤¸‡ªµ¤°—‡¨o°Š„´°´˜¦µŸ¨„εŦ
°ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦ —´Šœ´Êœ‹¹ŠšÎµÄ®oÁ oµÄ‹Šnµ¥ °¸„š´ÊŠÅ¤n˜o°Š¤¸„µ¦„ε®œ—°´˜¦µnªœ¨—Ūo „n°œ —´ŠÁn œ NPV ¨³ B/C Ratio
„µ¦ª· Á‡¦µ³®r‡ªµ¤Á¸É¥ŠÂ¨³‡ªµ¤Å¤nœnœ°œ
1. „µ¦ª·Á‡¦µ³®r ‹»—‡»o¤š» œ (Break-even Analysis) ‹»—‡»o¤š»œ ®¤µ¥™¹ Š ‹»— – ¦³—´ „µ¦—εÁœ·œŠµœ °Š
›» ¦„·‹š¸Éž¦·¤µ–· œ‡oµ®¦º°¦·„µ¦¤¸Ÿ¨šÎµÄ®o›»¦„· ‹¤¸¦µ¥Å—oÁšnµ„´‡nµÄo‹nµ¥¦ª¤š´ÊŠ·Êœ œ´Éœ‡º° ‹»— – ¦³—´ „µ¦
—εÁœ·œŠµœ °Š›»¦„·‹š¸ÉŤn¤¸„εŦ µ—š»œœ´ÉœÁ°Š „µ¦‡Î µœª–®µ‹»—‡»o¤š»œ ‹µ„¤¤˜· “µœ˜nµŠÇ µ¤µ¦™‡Îµœª–Å—o
—´Šœ¸Ê
ž¦·¤µ–„µ¦Ÿ¨·˜š¸É‹»—‡»o¤š»œ = ˜oœš»œ‡Šš¸É/(¦µ‡µ µ¥˜n°®œnª¥ - ˜oœš»œŸ´œÂž¦˜n°®œn ª¥)
2. „µ¦ª·Á‡¦µ³®r ‡ªµ¤Åª °ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦ (Sensitivity Analysis) Áž}œ„µ¦ª·Á‡¦µ³®r —¼ªnµ™µœ³šµŠ—oµœ„µ¦ÁŠ·œ
°ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦´¤¡´œ›r„´˜´ªÂž¦š¸É ε‡´ 3 ˜´ªÂž¦ ‡º° „µ¦Áž¨¸É¥œÂž¨Š¦µ‡µ (Price Variation) „µ¦Áž¨¸É¥œÂž¨Š °Š
Ÿ¨Ÿ¨·˜ (Yield Variation) ¨³„µ¦Áž¨¸É ¥œÂž¨Š‡nµÄo‹nµ¥ (Cost Overrun) ץž¦Á®¨nµœ¸Ê‹³¤¸Ÿ¨„¦³šÃ—¥˜¦Š˜n °
ǦŠ„µ¦ šÎµÄ®oŸ¨˜°Âšœ„µ¦¨Šš»œÂ¨³‹»—‡»o¤š»œ °ŠÃ‡¦Š„µ¦Áž¨¸É¥œÂž¨ŠÅž
3. Switching Value ˜µ¤ž„˜·°Š„µ¦ª·Á‡¦µ³®r ‡ªµ¤Åª‹³Á¨º°„˜´ªÂž¦š¸É‡µ—ªnµ‹³Áž¨¸É¥œÂž¨ŠÂ˜n 宦´
„µ¦‡Îµœª–®µ Switching Value ×¥š¸ÉǦŠ„µ¦¥´Š¡°¥°¤¦´Å—oĜ¦³—´˜Éε»— Ž¹ÉŠ¸Êª´—‹µ„Á„–”rª´—‡nµÃ‡¦Š„µ¦Äœ
„¦–¸˜nµŠÇ —´Šœ¸Ê