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ĜnªŠ„ε¨´Š¡´•œµ Á¡¦µ³Á¤ºÉ°¦³—´¦µ¥Å—oÁ¡·É¤ ¹Êœ ‹Îµœªœ¤¨¡· ¬ (ž¦·¤µ– ¥³) „ÈÁ¡·É¤ ¹Êœ—oª¥ ‹³Á®Èœªnµž¦·¤µ– ¥³
¥´Š¤¸‡ªµ¤´ ¤¡´œ›r„´¦µ¥Å—oĜš·«šµŠÁ—¸¥ª„´œ (Hanley, 2001) œ´Êœ®¤µ¥‡ªµ¤ªn µž¦³µœ£¼Á„Ș¥´ŠÄ®o ‡ªµ¤Îµ‡´Äœ
Á¦ºÉ°Š °Š¦µ¥Å—o ¤µ„„ªnµ¦³—´¤¨¡·¬
2. «¹„¬µ‡ªµ¤´ ¤¡´œ›r¦³®ªn µŠž¦·¤µ– ¥³„´ž{‹‹´¥—oµœÁ«¦¬“„· ‹Â¨³´Š‡¤
„µ¦«¹„¬µž{‹‹´¥šµŠÁ«¦¬“„·‹Â¨³´Š‡¤š¸É°·š›·¡¨˜n°„µ¦ž¦·¤µ– ¥³ œ´ÊœÅ—oœÎµž{ ‹‹´¥—oµœŸ¨·˜£´ –”r¤ª¨
¦ª¤‹´Š®ª´— (GPP: Gross Provincial Products) 7 ‹Îµœªœž¦³µ„¦š¸É°µ«´¥Äœ‹´Š®ª´—£¼Á„Ș ‹Îµœªœœ´„šn°ŠÁš¸É ¥ª
˜nµŠµ˜· ¨³‹Îµœªœœ´„šn°ŠÁš¸É¥ªÅš¥ ¤µš—°¤¤˜·“µœ—´ Š¦µ¥¨³Á°¸¥— oµŠ¨nµŠ
H 0 : ž{‹‹´¥œ´ÊœÅ¤n¤¸°·š›·¡¨˜n°ž¦·¤µ– ¥³Äœ‹´Š®ª´—£¼Á„Ș
H 1 : ž{ ‹‹´¥œ´Êœ¤¸°·š›·¡¨˜n°ž¦·¤µ– ¥³Äœ‹´Š®ª´—£¼Á„Ș
Ÿ¼o«¹„¬µÅ—o«¹„¬µ‡ªµ¤´¤¡´œ›rĜ¦¼ž¤„µ¦™—™°¥Á·ŠÁoœ (Linear Regression) 8 ץčoަ„¦¤
εÁ¦È ‹¦¼žšµŠ™·˜· —oª¥ª·›¸ Stepwise Ž¹ÉŠÁž}œ¤„µ¦š¸ÉÁ®¤µ³¤š¸É »—9 (¤„µ¦ 2) (Damodar, 1999; Johuston, 1991;
Kenneth, 2005)
G = GA +ȕ1(GPP)+ ȕ2(N. Thai tourists) ................................................ 2)
G = -18834+ 0.000003944GPP+ 0.039 N. Thai tourists
s.e = (9819.650) (.000) (.009)
t-test = (-12.102) (10.723) (4.405)
P – Value = (0.000) (0.000) (0.012)
7 ‹µ„„µ¦š—°ÁºÊ°Š˜o œ ¡ªnµ„µ¦¦· ㇠(consume: C) ¤¸‡ªµ¤´¤¡´œ›r‡n°œ oµŠ¼ Š (ž¦³¤µ– 80%) „´Ÿ¨·˜£´–”r¤ª¨¦ª¤‹´Š®ª´—
(GPP: Gross Provincial Products) —´Šœ´ÊœÁ¡ºÉ°žj°Š„´ œ„µ¦Á„·—ž{®µ¡®» ´¤¡´œ›r°Š˜´ªÂž¦°· ¦³—oª¥„´ œÁ°Š (Multicollinearity) Ĝ„µ¦
ª· Á‡¦µ³®r‹¹ŠÄoŸ¨· ˜£´–”r¤ª¨¦ª¤‹´Š®ª´— Áž}œ˜´ªÂšœ‡ªµ¤Á‹¦·Á˜·Ã˜šµŠÁ«¦¬“„·‹ °Š‹´Š®ª´—£¼Á„Ș
8 ‹µ„„µ¦‡´—Á¨º°„¦¼žÂ¤„µ¦—oª¥ª·›¸ Box – Cox Test ¡ªnµ¦¼žÂ Log Linear ¨³ Double log linear Ťn¤¸‡ªµ¤Â˜„˜nµŠ„´œ –
¦³—´œ´¥Î µ‡´ 0.05
9 šÎµ„µ¦š—°Â¨o ª¡ªnµ Ťn¤¸ž{®µ¡®» ´¤¡´œ›r¦³®ªn µŠ˜´ªÂž¦°· ¦³ (Multicollinearity) ¨³Å¤n¤¸ž{®µ˜´ª‡¨µ—Á‡¨ºÉ°œ¤¸
‡ªµ¤´¤¡´œ›r„´œÄœnªŠÁª¨µš¸É˜nµŠ„´œ (Autocorrelation)