full2011_inter.pdf - page 82

2011 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies
- 82 -
As shown in figure 2 the tendency of methane emission
from livestock sector increases due to the enlarging of
husbandry in order to response a demand of population.
Therefore, the mitigation is needed for supporting the
higher methane emission from the livestock sector.
II. M ETHODOLOGY
The forecast of GHG in each situation for livestock
found that factors that affect the forecast is rate of
economic growth as measured by gross domestic product
(GDP) from the National Economic and Social
Development Board, amount of population in the country
following from civil registration from department of the
interior and national statistical office, prime minister's
office, product price from office of agricultural
economics, The export volume from department of
livestock development, According to database of the year
1994-2007. The forecast of methane emission from
livestock is depent on the number of livestock in the
country, according to equation (1)[1,2], this can be seen
that when the number of livestock increases the emission
is higher.ܧ݉݅ݏݏ݅݋݊ݏ ൌ σ ݌݋݌ݑ ݈ܽݐ݅݋݊௜ ௜ ܨܧ כ௜ (1)
When Emission is methane emission (Gg CH4/year)
EF is emission factor for the specific population
(kg/head/year)
Population is the number of animals (head)[4]
For calculation from tier2, emission factor from
manure management used Equations (2) and (3) in the
calculation[1,2]ܨܧ௜ ൌ ܸܵ௜ כ ͵͸ͷ݀ܽݕ Ȁܤ כ ݎݕ௢௜ כ Ͳ͸͹݇݃Ȁ݉ଷ
כ ෍ሺܨܥܯ௝௞ ܯ כܵΨ௜௝௞ሻ (2)
When EFi is emission factor (kg/yr) for animal type i
VSi is volatile solid produced (kg/day) for animal type i
Boi is methane producing capacity (m3/kg of VS) for manure
produced by animal i[5]
MFCjk is Methane conversion factor for manure management
system j by climate region k
MS%ijk is Fraction of animal type i under manure system j
climate region kܸܵሺ݇݃ ܯܦȀ݀ܽݕ ሻ ൌ ܫ݊ ݐܽ݇݁ሺܬܯ Ȁ݀ܽݕ ሻ ൈ ሺͳ݇݃Ȁͳͺܬܯ ሻ
ൈ ሺͳ െ ܧܦΨȀͳͲͲሻ ൈ ͳ െ ݏܣ݄ΨȀͳͲͲሻ(3)
When VS is VS excretion per day on a dry weight basis
DM is Dry matter
Intake is the estimated diary average feed intake in MJ/day
DE% is the digestibility of the feed in percent
ASH% is the ash content of the manure in percent
To forecast of emission GHG from livestock, the
forecast of the amount of livestock was done using
equation (4)-(8) that is correlated with variables that
affect each type of livestock production in Thailand[6],
For dairy cattle :ܻௗ௔௜௥௬ ௖௔௧௧௟௘ ൌ ͺ͵͹ͳ͸ͶͲ כ ܺଵ ൅ Ͷ͸ͳͳ͸Ǥʹ͹ כ ܺଶ െ ͸ʹͳ͵Ͷ͸ (4)
when Ydairy cattle is The number of dairy cattle per year
X 1 is GDP per Capita(Baht per person)[7,8]
X 2 is Milk price (Baht/kg)[11]
Divided into 3 scenario;
A : GDP growth 2% population 0.6% Price 1%
B : GDP growth 3% population 0.6% Price 2%
C : GDP growth 4% population 0.6% Price 3%
For non-dairy cattle :
ܻ௡௢௡ିௗ௔௜௥௬ ௖௔௧௧௟௘ ൌ ሺʹǤͳͺ ൈ ͳͲ ଼ሻ כ ܺଵ െ ʹͲͶǤͺͶͷ כ ܺଶ െ ͵Ͳ͹ͷͲͶͳ (5)
when Ynon-dairy cattle is The number of non-dairy cattle per year
X 1 is GDP per Capita(Baht per person) [7,8]
X 2 is Beef price (Baht/kg)[11]
Divided into 3 scenario;
A : GDP growth 2% population 0.6% Price 2%
B : GDP growth 3% population 0.6% Price 4%
C : GDP growth 4% population 0.6% Price 4%
For buffalo :
ܻ஻௨௙௙௔௟௢ ൌ Ͷ͸͹͹͵ͳͺͺ כ ܺଵ െ ͳͻͲǤͺͶͻ כ ܺଶ ൅ ʹͲͶ͵Ͷ͸ʹ(6)
when YBuffalo is The number of buffalo per year
X1 is GDP per Capita(Baht per person) [7,8]
X2 is Meat price (Baht/kg)
Divided into 3 scenario;
A : GDP growth 2% population 0.6% Price 1%
B : GDP growth 3% population 0.6% Price 2%
C : GDP growth 4% population 0.6% Price 3%
For swine :ܻ௦௪௜௡௘ ൌ െͳͲ͵͵ͺ͸ͺʹͶǤ͵ͺ כ ܺଵ ൅ ͸Ǥͻͷͳ͵͸ כ ܺଶ ൅ ͺ͹͵ͺͶͲͷǤʹʹ (7)
when Yswine is The number of swine per year
X1 is GDP per Capita(Baht per person) [7,8]
X2 is Sow number
Divided into 3 scenario;
A : GDP growth 2% population 0.6%
B : GDP growth 3% population 0.6%
C : GDP growth 4% population 0.6%