full2011_inter.pdf - page 83

2011 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies
- 83 -
For poultry :
ܻ௉௢௨௟௧௥௬ ൌ ሺ͵͹ͻ ൈ ͳͲଽሻ כ ܺଵ ൅ ͵ͷͺ כ ܺଶ ൅ ሺͻ ൈ ͳͲ଻ ሻ
(8)
when YPoultry is The number of buffalo per year
X1 is GDP per Capita(Baht per person) [7,8]
X2 is Poultry export (ton)[4]
Divided into 3 scenario;
A : GDP growth 2% population 0.6% Export 2%
B : GDP growth 3% population 0.6% Export 3%
C : GDP growth 4% population 0.6% Export 4%
III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
A. Mitigation Assessment.
From the correlations between the number of livestock
and growth of Thailand GDP, these can forecast the
amount of GHG emission of livestock sector from 2010
to 2050. The figure 3 showed the GHG emission from
manure management of five types of livestock in
Thailand namely, cattle, non-dairy cattle, buffalo, swine
and poultry respectively. The figure 4 illustrated the GHG
emissions from manure management of five types of
livestock during 2008-2050 at 3% GDP and the rate of
change of population 0.6%. It was suggested that major
emission were from dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle and
swine. Therefore the mitigation options should be the
reduction of GHG emission from these three types of
livestock.
(a) Dairy Cattle
(b) Non-Dairy Cattle
(c) Buffalo
(d) Swine
(e) Poultry
Fig. 3. Estimates of methane emissions in the livestock sector in
Thailand from manure management in 2008 - 2050 .
Fig. 4. Summary estimates of methane emissions from manure
management in 2008 - 2050 at 3% GDP and The rate of change of
population 0.6%.