full2010.pdf - page 1923

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Forecasting Model of Monthly Fresh Orchids Export Values in Thailand using
Winters’ Method
ž¦³¡´¥ ¡»œœšr1* ¨³¡¦‹·¦µ °£· ¦´„¬r´¥„» ¨2
Prasopchai Pasunon 1* and Pornjira Apirakchaisakul2
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„µ¦ª·‹´¥‡¦´ÊŠœ¸Ê ¤¸ª´˜™»ž¦³Š‡r Á¡ºÉ°¡¥µ„¦–r¤¼¨‡n µ„µ¦nŠ°°„—°„„¨oª¥Å¤o¦µ¥Á—º °œ °Šž¦³Áš«Åš¥
×¥ª·›¸ °Šª·œÁ˜°¦r ×¥‡Îµœª–‹Î µ¨°Š„µ¦¡¥µ„¦–r‹µ„„µ¦®µ‡nµ™nªŠœÊ宜´„ D J ¨³ G š¸ÉÄ®o‡nµ MSE ˜ÉÎ µ
š¸É »— —oª¥„µ¦‹Îµ¨°ŠÂ 1012 ŽÊε Ÿ¨„µ¦ª·‹´¥ ¡ªnµ ‹Î µ¨°ŠÄ®o‡nµ MSE œo°¥š¸É »— Á¤ºÉ° D = 0.259 J = 0.014
¨³ G = 0.000 ¨³‹µ„„µ¦˜¦ª‹°‡ªµ¤Â¤nœ¥Îµ °Š„µ¦¡¥µ„¦–r ŗo ‡nµ MAPE = 7.273 œ°„‹µ„œ¸Ê ¥´ŠÅ—o
¡¥µ„¦–r¤¼¨‡nµ„µ¦n Š°°„—°„„¨oª¥Å¤o ¨nªŠ®œo µ˜´ÊŠÂ˜nÁ—º°œ¡§¬£µ‡¤ ¡.«. 2553 ™¹ŠÁ—º°œÁ¤¬µ¥œ ¡.«. 2554
‡ÎµÎµ‡´ : ¤¼¨‡nµ„µ¦n Š°°„—°„„¨oª¥Å¤o ª·›¸°Šª· œÁ˜°¦r
Abstract
The objective of this research was to forecast monthly fresh orchids export values using Winters’
method. A forecasting model was proposed. D , J and G weighs were calculated to find the lowest MSE. The
model was simulated 1012 times. The result was shown that the proposed model yielded the lowest MSE value
when values of D = 0.259, J = 0.014 and G = 0.000. In test the accuracy of the model, it was found that MAPE
was equal to 7.273. Moreover, Monthly fresh orchids export values from May 2010 to April 2011 were forecast
ahead.
Keywords : Fresh orchids export values, Winters’ method
1 Ÿ«. ‡–³ª·š¥µ„µ¦‹´—„µ¦ ¤®µª· š¥µ¨´¥«·¨žµ„¦ ª·š¥µÁ ˜µ¦œÁš«Á¡¦»¦¸ 76120
Asst. Prof., Faculty of Management Science, Silpakorn University, Phetchburi IT campus 76120
*Corresponding author : Ú¦«´¡šr 0-3259-4028 Ú¦µ¦ 0-3259-4027 E-mail :pasunon@gmail.com
2 œ´„«¹ „¬µž¦·µ˜¦¸ ‡–³ª·š¥µ„µ¦‹´—„µ¦ ¤®µª·š¥µ¨´¥«·¨žµ„¦ ª·š¥µÁ ˜µ¦œÁš«Á¡¦»¦¸ 76120
Bachelor's Degree Student, Faculty of Management Science, Silpakorn University, Phetchburi IT campus, 76120