full2010.pdf - page 1931

1893
…o
°Áœ°Âœ³
1.Î
µ®¦´
„µ¦ª·
‹´
¥‡¦´Ê
Š®œo
µ°µ‹‹³œÎ
µÂ‹Î
µ¨°Š°ºÉ
œÁ…o
µ¤µÄo
Ĝ„µ¦¡¥µ„¦–r
¤¼
¨‡n
µ„µ¦n
Š°°„—°„„¨o
ª¥Å¤o
…°ŠÅš¥„È
ŗo
2.Î
µ®¦´
„µ¦«¹
„¬µ‡¦´Ê
Š˜n
°ÅžÄœ°œµ‡˜ Á¡ºÉ
°Ä®o
ŗo
Ÿ¨„µ¦«¹
„¬µš¸É
¤¸
‡ªµ¤Â¤n
œ¥Î
µ¤µ„…¹Ê
œ ‡ª¦Äo
‹Î
µœªœ
…o
°¤¼
¨°œ»
„¦¤Áª¨µš¸É
¤µ„…¹Ê
œ Án
œ čo
…o
°¤¼
¨°œ»
„¦¤Áª¨µÁž}
œ¦µ¥´
ž—µ®r
šœ„µ¦Äo
…o
°¤¼
¨°œ»
„¦¤Áª¨µÁž}
œ¦µ¥Á—º
°œ
—´
ŠÁn
œ„µ¦«¹
„¬µ‡¦´Ê
Šœ¸Ê
Á°„µ¦°o
µŠ°·
Š
„¦³š¦ªŠÁ„¬˜¦Â¨³®„¦–r
. (2552).
…o
°¤¼
¨„µ¦‡o
µÂ¨³„µ¦n
Š°°„
(™·
˜·
„µ¦‡o
µ), (°°œÅ¨œr
). (°o
µŠÁ¤ºÉ
° 4 „¦„‘µ‡¤
2553)
.
‹µ„
52/
„¡¦ š°Š‹·
˜˜·
¡Š«r
. (2549).
«¹
„¬µ„µ¦¡¥µ„¦–r
¦µ‡µÁ¤¨È
—„µÂ¢—·
Ã—¥ª·
›¸
°µ¦¸
¤µ,
‡–³Á«¦¬“«µ˜¦r
¤®µª·
š¥µ¨´
¥Á¸
¥ŠÄ®¤n
.
¤»
„—µ ¤o
œ¤·
œš¦r
. (2549).
°œ»
„¦¤Áª¨µÂ¨³„µ¦¡¥µ„¦–r
,
„¦»
ŠÁš¡² : Î
µœ´
„¡·
¤¡r
ž¦³„µ¥¡¦¹
„. 89 – 126.
ª¦µ§š›·Í
¡µ–·
„·
‹Ã„«¨„»
¨. (2550).
¡¥µ„¦–r
ž¦·
¤µ–œÊÎ
µ œ…°Š‹´
Š®ª´
—®œ°Š‡µ¥—o
ª¥ª·
›¸
…°Š°„Žr
-Á‹œ„·
œr
ª·
›¸
Â¥„n
ªœž¦³„° (Decomposition method) ¨³ª·
›¸
…°Šª·
œÁ˜°¦r
(Winter’s method),
ªµ¦µ¦ª·
µ„µ¦
¤®µª·
š¥µ¨´
¥®°„µ¦‡o
µ. 2(17):138 - 150
Î
µœ´
„ŠµœÁ«¦¬“„·
‹„µ¦Á„¬˜¦. (2553).
¤¼
¨‡n
µ„µ¦n
Š°°„„¨o
ª¥Å¤o
,
(°°œÅ¨œr
). (°o
µŠÁ¤ºÉ
° 11 ¤·
™»
œµ¥œ 2553)
.
‹µ„
¤Á„¸
¥¦˜·
Á„˜»
Á°¸É
¥¤. (2548).
Áš‡œ·
‡„µ¦¡¥µ„¦–r
. Š…¨µ : £µ¦„·
‹Á°„µ¦Â¨³˜Î
µ¦µ ¤®µª·
š¥µ¨´
¥š´
„¬·
–. 2-3.
»
š›·
ª·
š¥r
Šè®³¡´
œ›r
, ž¦³¡´
¥ ¡»
œœšr
¨³»
—µ ˜¦³„µ¦Á™¨·
Š«´
„—·Í
. (2552).
¡¥µ„¦–r
¦µ‡µÁ®¨È
„Ÿn
œ¦¸
—¦o
°œ
¦µ¥Á—º
°œÄœž¦³Áš«Åš¥—o
ª¥ª·
›¸
„µ¦…°Š°„Žr
-Á‹œ„·
œr
,
‡–³ª·
š¥µ„µ¦‹´
—„µ¦ ¤®µª·
š¥µ¨´
¥«·
¨žµ„¦.
Cipra T., Trujillo J., & Rubio A. (1995). Holt-Winters method with missing observations.
Management Science,
41(1):174 - 178
D.Bunn and G.Wright. (1991). Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and
Analysis.
Management science.
37(5):501-518.
Gardner E.S., & Mckenzie E. (1989). Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends.
Management
Science.
35(3):372 – 376.
Groff G.K. (1973). Empirical comparison of models for short range forecastion.
Management Science.
20(3):22-
31.
1...,1921,1922,1923,1924,1925,1926,1927,1928,1929,1930 1932,1933,1934,1935,1936,1937,1938,1939,1940,1941,...2023
Powered by FlippingBook